Part 1 - Cautious Optimism Continues Even as “Trump Bump” Fizzles
In RCLCO’s last sentiment survey at year-end 2016, respondents reported a new-found optimism for the current real estate market, an impression that was largely buoyed by promised changes coming to the federal government. With the new administration and Republican control of both houses of Congress, positive opinions on the future real estate economy abounded. Many indicated that the likelihood of tax reform, deregulation, and other business-friendly policies would lead to a continued, and perhaps even more robust, economic expansion that has endured for the past eight years following the last recession. This optimistic attitude was in stark contrast to the more negative outlook of the midyear 2016 survey, which, in the fallout of the Brexit vote and poor stock market performance among other factors, had respondents predicting a downturn in 2018. Read Part 1 Here
Part 2 - How Long Will the Expansion Continue?
As detailed in Part 1, respondents to RCLCO’s latest Market Sentiment Survey are feeling slightly less optimistic than they were six months ago, but most still see continued stability in market conditions for the near- to mid-term. Two-thirds (65%) of respondents believe the next U.S. real estate market downturn will not begin until at least 2019, and current sentiment is higher than it was a year ago. As such, respondents predict maturing but stable conditions to continue for at least the next year for most real estate product types. Nonetheless, they remain vigilant about when markets tick over from late stable to early downturn conditions, and how much upside remains. Sentiment suggests apartments and retail may be the first to peak. Read Part 2 Here